Trans-Atlantic Exchange Rate Report For October 28th - November 1st
By Lucas Messaggi, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
Trans-Atlantic Currencies Index
Source: DBonomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of October 28 to November 1, we observed changes in exchange rates among the four Atlantic currencies. The Euro (blue) experienced the largest fluctuation, initially rising to 0.43% before dropping to -0.56% by the week's end. The Swiss franc (maroon) also saw a negative shift, decreasing to around -0.08%. The British pound (green) showed moderate movement throughout the week, finishing at approximately 0.20%. Lastly, the Canadian dollar (red) had the highest positive change, ending the week up around 0.48%.
Trans-Atlantic Historic Trends
Source: Dbonomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Adding this week’s data to our historic trends graph, we observe the following: the Canadian dollar (red) continues its decline, falling far below its lower boundary, though it is trending upwards going into next week. The Swiss franc (maroon) remains just below its lower boundary, trending downward as it approaches November. The Euro (blue) is another currency below the lower boundary of its three-month rolling average, also trending downward heading into next week. Finally, the British pound (green) is the only currency within its boundaries, trending upward as it heads into November.
Additional Reading
With Swiss consumer prices falling below the expected level, at 0.6% instead of 0.8%, the Swiss National Bank is anticipated to cut the interest rate from 1% to 0.75% or even more significantly to 0.5% or 0.25% by March 2025. This decline in inflation is driven by lower prices for food, clothing, and other household goods. As interest rate cuts generally reduce currency strength, this move could lead to a weakening of the Swiss franc, prompting some investors to consider selling.
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