Trans-Atlantic Exchange Rate Report November 3rd –7th

By: David R. Fredericks, The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team

Trans-Atlantic Currencies Index

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

During the week of November 3 – 7, all four Trans-Atlantic currencies fluctuated within narrow ranges before ending the period mixed against the U.S. dollar. The Swiss franc (CHF) and euro (EUR) each strengthened modestly, gaining roughly +0.4 % and +0.3 %, respectively. The British pound (GBP) was largely unchanged, while the Canadian dollar (CAD) softened slightly amid mid-week declines in crude-oil prices.

According to some market observers, the relative stability across the European currencies may have reflected limited data releases and cautious positioning ahead of forthcoming central-bank updates. Regardless of interpretation, the week’s outcome was characterized by muted movements and continued equilibrium across the Trans-Atlantic complex.

Trans-Atlantic Historical Trends

Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

From early July through early November, the four tracked currencies have exhibited varying momentum. The Canadian dollar (CAD) peaked above 0.735 USD in July but gradually eased toward 0.72 USD by late October, consistent with slower energy sector dynamics. The Swiss franc (CHF) remained strong throughout the period, approaching multi-month highs near 1.27 USD. The euro (EUR) has held within a stable band between 1.16 and 1.18 USD, while the British pound (GBP) continued to be the most volatile, oscillating between 1.33 and 1.38 USD before settling mid-range into November.

Analysts note that these relative movements may correspond to diverging monetary-policy expectations across advanced economies. Nonetheless, European currencies have remained broadly stable, whereas the Canadian dollar continues to mirror commodity-market fluctuations.

Outlook

With major central-bank meetings scheduled later in November, forecasters expect tight trading ranges to persist in the near term. Inflation data from the euro area and U.K. may help clarify policy trajectories heading into year-end, while energy-price trends remain an important variable for the Canadian dollar.