CEE Exchange Rate Update for February 5 – February 9
By: Thomas Taheny, The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team
CEE Currencies Index
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period).
During the period from February 4th to February 9th, all Central European currencies depreciated in value against the Euro. The Romanian leu (yellow) consistently declined, reaching a total loss of 0.10% throughout the week. The Polish zloty (red) began the week on a decline, reaching its lowest point on February 6th, then rising above the value of the Romanian leu on February 9th to only report a total depreciation of 0.08% this week. The Czech koruna (blue) fluctuated throughout the week and reported a 1.2% loss in value by the end of the week. The Hungarian forint (green) followed the downward trend of its neighboring currencies to reach a loss of 1.1% this week.
CEE Currencies Historical Trends
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
This week, Central European currencies showed a general trend of depreciation, except for the Polish zloty (PLN), which increased above its highest bound. The Czech koruna (CZK) continued to trend downward below its lower bound. Interestingly, the Czech koruna has not reached a point above its lower bound during the month of February. The Hungarian forint (HUF) started the week above its lower bound but steadily fell below it as the week progressed. The Romanian leu reported similar behavior, starting the week above its lower bound and falling under it by the end of the week.