CEE Exchange Rates Report for February 19 – 23

By: Dan Hogan, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

CEE Currencies Index

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period. 

Throughout the week of February 19th to 23rd, all Central European currencies saw an appreciation against the United States dollar (USD). The Czech koruna (blue) saw an increase of 0.6% by the end of Thursday before dropping on Friday to close at a weekly gain of 0.4%. In nearly identical fashion, the Hungarian forint (green) peaked on Thursday and sharply declined the next day, finishing the week up about 0.1%. The Romanian leu (yellow) remained nearly dead even throughout the whole week before posting a small gain at the end of the week, appreciating 0.1% for the week. Finally, to close out the group, the Polish zloty (red) had the strongest performance of the four currencies, gaining 0.6% by the end of the measured period.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period. 

From January 19th to 23rd, all but one of the currencies remained below the rolling three-month average. The strong performance of the Polish zloty (PLN) pushed the currency above the upper bound, continuing the nearly month-long rally. Despite the positive week for the Czech koruna (CZK), it remains well below the lower standard deviation for consecutive weeks. The Hungarian forint (HUF) could not break above the lower bound either, settling near a new level after depreciating rapidly against the USD nearly a month ago. To round out the group, the Romanian leu (RON) remained on or slightly above its respective lower bound as it saw almost no movement throughout the past week. Overall, no currency posted any surprising deviations from the recent trends that have been developing over the past few weeks.