CEE Exchange Rates Report for January 12th - 16th
- Jan 19
- 3 min read
By: Margaret Gachau, The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team
CEE Currencies Index
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
In the week of January 12, 2026 – January 16, 2026, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) currencies were quite volatile as they all fluctuated between a positive and negative change in exchange rate. The week opened with broad-based depreciation, followed by a gradual recovery that left most currencies ending at or above zero by the end of the week. The Polish zloty (PLN) was the most volatile among regional peers, recording both one of the weakest and strongest daily moves. It fell to a low of approximately −0.5% before rebounding sharply to a high near 0.5% by week’s end. The Romanian leu (RON) broadly tracked the zloty in the second half of the week, declining to around −0.45% before recovering to close near 0.25%. The Hungarian forint (HUF) followed a more moderate trajectory, reaching a midweek peak of roughly 0.19% before easing to finish the week marginally positive, at approximately 0.05%. The Czech koruna (CZK) remained in negative territory throughout the week, reaching a weekly low of −0.61% and only recovering to 0% by the end of the period.
CEE Currencies Historical Trends
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
In the second week of January 2026, Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies largely extended their downward adjustment, with all four currencies trading below their respective averages. The Czech koruna (CZK) experienced modest easing early in the week but stabilized thereafter, ending the period with a slight appreciation around 0.0477 USD per koruna, remaining close to but below its rolling average. The Hungarian forint (HUF) continued the depreciation trend observed since early January, retreating to 0.003; levels last seen in mid-November 2025. Similarly, the Polish zloty (PLN) recorded a brief appreciation at the beginning of the week; however, this proved short-lived as the exchange rate declined sharply, falling below the 0.275 three-month average. The Romanian leu (RON) also weakened further, moving closer to its lower bound and ending the week near 0.228, underscoring sustained downside pressure.
Additional Readings
For Central and Eastern Europe, this report provides a macro backdrop that helps explain recent currency weakness and volatility. Lower global inflation, easing energy prices, and expectations of monetary policy easing across the CEE region, notably in Hungary, Czechia, Poland, and Romania,have reduced interest rate support for local currencies. At the same time, a stabilizing eurozone outlook offers medium-term growth support, but near-term FX dynamics remain constrained by dovish central bank pivots and narrowing rate differentials. The combination of a softer US dollar outlook later in 2026 and improving eurozone demand suggests potential stabilization ahead, though early-2026 pressures reflect markets pricing in CEE rate cuts sooner rather than later.
The BBH’s outlook for the week of January 12, 2026 points to a near-term strengthening of the US dollar, supported by resilient US data and an upward repricing of rate expectations, despite scope for Fed easing later in the year. Heightened policy uncertainty, including an upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariffs and a heavy schedule of Fed speakers, kept markets cautious. This environment reduced risk appetite and weighed on regional and emerging market currencies, including those in Central and Eastern Europe.
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