CEE Exchange Rates Report for June 2nd – 6th

By: Peter Ort The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index 

 Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

During the week of June 2–June 6, the Hungarian forint (green), Czech koruna (orange), and Romanian leu (purple) all shared similar patterns in exchange rates against the USD, remaining negative in percent change. The Hungarian forint ended with a -0.75% exchange rate, while the Romanian leu and Czech koruna sat at about a -1% percent change. The Polish zloty (blue) experienced the most volatility against the USD, as it quickly went from -0.5% to 0.5% during the days of June 2–4, ultimately settling at a 0.25% exchange rate against the USD.  

CEE Currencies Historical Trends 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

Relative to this week, all currencies share a steady upward trend over the past three months. The Czech koruna (CZK) stays at about a 0.046% exchange rate to the USD, and the Hungarian forint (HUF) at 0.0029%, as they both maintain very similar trajectories going as far back as the past three months. The Romanian leu (RON) continues to grow steadily after a rough election month in May, rounding to a 0.23% exchange rate with the USD. The Polish zloty (PLN) appears to be fluctuating in recent weeks, although this was primarily due to their election occurring around that time. The zloty continues to hold at a 0.27% exchange rate against the USD.

Additional Reading

Polish Election Causes Economic Downturn and Currency Fluctuations

With record voter turnout of 71.63% and President-elect Karol Nawrocki winning with just 50.89% of the vote, the most recent Polish election is shaping up to be one of the most important in the country’s history. Despite both candidates appearing to be centrist and leaning right, the market took a noticeable hit after the election, with the banking sector suffering the most, as major banks saw up to a 7% loss in stock value the day after. The Polish zloty largely weakened that day against other major currencies such as the euro, pound, and USD, although it has gained on them over the past year. Investors remain cautious about the market and are actively monitoring for significant policy adjustments from the new administration.