CEE Exchange Rates Report for March 18 – March 22

By: Thomas Taheny, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

The week of March 18th to March 22nd witnessed a variety of fluctuations in Central European currencies. The Romanian leu (yellow) saw no significant changes throughout the week, generally maintaining its value around the starting point. The Hungarian forint (green) gradually depreciated from the beginning of the week, only to rebound to its initial value on the 21st, before dropping again by 0.8% by week's end. The Czech koruna (blue) followed a similar trajectory, steadily losing value before experiencing a slight recovery, resulting in an overall weekly depreciation of 0.8%. Similarly, the Polish zloty (red) initially mirrored the depreciation of the koruna and leu but regained ground during the subsequent rebound, resulting in a 0.5% decrease by the end of the week.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

The week of March 18th to March 22nd saw several Central European currencies finding new ground. The Czech koruna (CZK) began the week by increasing above its lower bound; however, it quickly turned around, falling below its lower bound again. The Hungarian forint (HUF) remained below its lower bound this week and exhibited little movement from its starting point at the beginning of the week, reporting a further loss of value by the week’s end. The Polish zloty (PLN) started the week by decreasing from above its upper bound, then sharply declined below it, with a slight rebound subsequently placing it below the upper bound once more. The Romanian leu (RON) began this week above its median point of fluctuation and temporarily decreased below the median value, resulting in the currency’s final value of the week landing on this point.