CEE Exchange Rates Report for September 1st - 5th

By: Peter Ort The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

For the week of September 1-September 5, most CEE currencies had similar patterns while varying in intensity. The Romanian leu (purple) remained the most stable of all the currencies, having a positive percent change in exchange rate for most of the week and fell to just a -0.25% exchange rate, the highest of all other currencies. The Czech koruna (orange) had a similar fate, going positive for most of the week while ending negative in percent change, although it fell to a -0.5% change in exchange rate to end the week. Alternatively, the Hungarian forint (green) remained negative in change for the entire week, easily ending with the lowest change in exchange rate at -1.3%. The Polish zloty (blue) rounded the week with a relatively average showing compared to the other currencies, with a similar trajectory to the forint overall but far less volatile with a -0.75% change in exchange rate to end the week.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

Although significantly different in exchange rate week by week, the Hungarian forint (HUF) and Czech koruna (CZK) continue to have similar trajectories overall as they both appear to be steadily increasing in exchange rate, with the koruna and forint at 0.048 and 0.003 exchange rates respectively. The Polish zloty (PLN) is still eyeing a 0.28 exchange rate after a month of falling below it. Despite having a relatively stable August, the zloty remains at a 0.275 exchange rate, a decent way from the previous 0.28 exchange rate in July. The Romanian leu (RON) is the odd one out, as it decreased in exchange rate from last week while just holding on to a 0.23 exchange rate. Sharing the same problem as the zloty, the leu hasn’t been keen on getting back up to its previous 0.235 exchange rate from July, possibly due to insecurities about US tariffs.