CEE Exchange Rates Report for September 8th - 12th

By: Peter Ort The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index

 Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

Contrary to last week, CEE currencies all had fairly unique trajectories for this week, September 8-September 12. Starting with the most stable currency of this week, the Romanian leu (purple) gradually drifted between a -0.5% change in exchange rate and a 0% change, although it ended this week around a -0.3% change. The leu’s usual most similar currency, the Polish zloty (blue), was surprisingly different from not only the leu but every other currency, as it spiked up to a 0.5% change in exchange rate before ending this week neutrally at a net 0% change in exchange rate. While the Hungarian forint (green) and Czech koruna (orange) finished this week nearly identically at a -0.6% change in exchange rate, their trajectories were far more different. The forint waded in between a positive and negative change in exchange rate for most of the week before dipping down on the last day to a -0.6% change. The koruna on the other hand went way down to a -0.75% change before almost reaching 0% a few days later, ultimately rounding the week at a -0.6% change.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

Some CEE currencies this week have finally pushed through to an even higher exchange rate against the USD, which has not occurred since July of last summer. Both the Hungarian forint (HUF) and Czech koruna (CZK) reached new heights as the forint secures a 0.003 exchange rate while the koruna hit a 0.0485 exchange rate, unfortunately dipping a bit afterward. Despite that the koruna stays at relatively high exchange rate for this week. The Polish zloty (PLN) meanwhile achieves its peak again for the third time in the span of three months, achieving a 0.276 exchange rate for the week before dipping down itself. The Romanian leu (RON) ends the week staying relatively constant with a 0.232 exchange rate, far more consistent than its volatile May and June stint. Similar to the index plot, currencies were unusually different this week, particularly the forint and every other currency, where everyone else initially spiked up this week and fell a bit while the forint spiked and kept its peak.