Trans-Atlantic Exchange Rate Report For November 25th - 29th

By Lucas Messaggi, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

Trans-Atlantic Currencies Index

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

For the week of November 25th to November 29th, we observed the four atlantic currencies and any changes to their exchange rates from the start of the week. The Canadian dollar (red) was the only currency to have a positive change in their exchange rate by the end of the week, ending off at around 0.18%. The Swiss franc (maroon) descended to a -1.02% by the end of the week. Finally, both the British pound (green) and the Euro (blue) had the same percentage change by the end of the week, being the lowest to drop at -1.42%

Trans-Atlantic Historic Trends

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

After adding this week’s data to our historic graphs, we observe the following. All four currencies continue to be below their lower boundary, but are starting to stabilize their exchange rate after decreasing throughout the month of November. Heading into the last month of the year, all four currencies are trending downwards, likely to reach new a new low before the end of the year.

Additional Reading

Potential Impacts of Trump Tariff’s on Euro

With the promise of imposing a 10% to 20% tariff on all imported goods to the U.S, The European region could see a large reduction in the demand for their exported goods, leading the Euro to weaken against the USD. This, along with interest rates to accommodate for the tariffs, along with the already weakening Euro from our observations, we could see the USD becoming a stronger currency to the Euro if these tariffs were to be imposed.

British Employment Data Crisis

The British Government is experiencing a big statistics problem. They are failing to collect and give sufficient data on the country’s employment status along with other employment parameters. This leads to the Bank of England being unsure as to whether to cut, keep, or increase their interest rates, as doing so without the correct and accurate data could lead to the pound growing weaker compared to other countries, or possibly more inflation.