CEE Exchange Rates Report for August 25th-29th

By: Peter Ort The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

For the week of August 25-August 29, CEE currencies were more volatile than usual, with most currencies changing as much as 0.5% in exchange rate by the day. The Hungarian forint (green) was the most interesting of the bunch, as it only dipped to a minimum change of -0.3% while every other currency went as far down as -0.75%. The forint ultimately ended this week at around a -0.2% change in exchange rate, as opposed to the Czech koruna (orange) that ended at a near -1% change. The Romanian leu (purple) and Polish zloty (blue) were the only two currencies that were a bit comparable. Although they had similar trajectories, they rounded this week significantly different, with the leu at a -0.1% change in exchange rate and the zloty at a -0.4% change.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

Contrary to last week, the Czech koruna (CZK) has fallen a bit short of its peak from the last month as it sits at a 0.0475 exchange rate. Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint (HUF) fell a bit from last week but still overall maintains that 0.00295 exchange rate from the past month. The Polish zloty (PLN) on the other hand maintained a little below a 0.275 exchange rate against the USD, which is consistent with the past few weeks. The Romanian leu (RON) also shared the same fate as the zloty as it seems to bounce between a 0.232 and 0.23 exchange rate. Interestingly, the forint and koruna both slightly decreased in exchange rate together while the zloty and leu maintained not just this week but over the past three weeks.