CEE Exchange Rates Report for March 25 – March 28

By: Thomas Taheny, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

During the week of March 25th to March 28th, several Central European currencies experienced different behaviors. Following last week’s general trend of depreciation, this week an almost inverted pattern occurred. The Romanian leu (yellow) once again saw little to no significant changes, rising by 0.05% at its most active point, finishing the week where it started. The Polish zloty (red) rose steeply by 0.2% at the start of the week; however, it lost value and eventually stabilized at around a 0.1% increase by the week’s end. The Czech koruna (blue) also saw a strong increase in value at the start of the week, rising by 0.4%. The koruna followed nearly the same trend as the zloty, depreciating throughout the week, stabilizing at a 0.26% increase by the end of the week. The Hungarian forint (green) slowly climbed through upward-trending points to reach a 0.26% increase in value at the end of the week as well.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

The week of March 25th to March 28th witnessed new behaviors by the Central European Currencies. The Czech koruna (CZK) initially started the week below its lowest bound but increased to surpass it by the end of the week. The Hungarian forint (HUF) also commenced the week below its lowest bound but did not rise sufficiently to breach it, remaining below it by week's end. The Polish zloty (PLN) began the week slightly below its highest bound but, after some insignificant changes throughout the week, it remained nearly at the same point as the beginning of the week. The Romanian leu (RON) started the week above its median point of fluctuation and rose to reach its highest bound. However, this increase was not sustained as it pulled back to a value close to its starting point by the week’s end.