CEE Exchange Rates Report for May 19th - 23rd

By: Peter Ort, The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team  

CEE Currencies Index  

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.   

During the week of May 19-May 23, most currencies took similar trajectories in exchange rates against the USD, with the Romanian leu (purple) being a bit more volatile than the rest. Both the Hungarian forint (green) and Czech koruna (orange) have nearly the exact same paths over the week where they end with approximately a -1% exchange rate change against the USD. The Polish zloty (blue) had a slightly different trajectory but ended in the same spot at a -1% exchange rate change. The Romanian leu appeared a bit more radical than the other central European currencies, going down to an even lower -2% exchange rate change against the USD.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends  

Source: Yahoo and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.   

During the past 3 months, the Czech koruna (CZK), Hungarian forint (HUF), and Polish zloty (PLN) all share a steady upward trend over the past 3 months and seem to be generally going up; with the Czech koruna at about a 0.046% exchange rate to the USD, the Hungarian forint at 0.0028%, and the Polish zloty at around 0.27%. Although the Romanian leu (RON) grew steadily in the months of March and April, it has since gone down significantly within a few weeks and more recently grown back near its original peak, which is currently about a 0.23% exchange rate with the USD. The Romanian leu dropped nearly half of its gains from March and April in just the first week of May, but it stays recovering since then.

Additional Reading

Romanian leu falls back as central bank keeps rate cut in view

One of the main reasons why the Romanian leu was fluctuating heavily was because of a recent election, where centrist Nicușor Dan surprisingly won presidency over the favored right wing candidate George Simion. The central bank also threatened to cut interest rates several times throughout 2025. However, they have recently said that they will think about cutting rates when Romania regains the capital that it lost during the turmoil of the election. Investors and the central bank originally felt threatened over the possibility of a radical change in fiscal policy by Simion, which is why exchange rates changed drastically in such short amounts of time.