CEE Exchange Rates Report for October 28th – November 1st
By: Zoe McLaughlin, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
CEE Currencies Index
Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of October 28 – November 1, the Czech koruna (red), Polish złoty (blue), and Romanian leu (purple) all decreased in value relative to the U.S. dollar. The Hungarian forint, however, increased by 0.20%, reaching a mid-week high of 1.01% on October 28. The Czech koruna closed the week down by 0.24%, with a mid-week peak of 0.96% on October 29. The Polish złoty declined by 0.40%, while the Romanian leu saw the largest drop, ending the week down 0.53% relative to the U.S. dollar, after reaching a mid-week high of 0.51% on October 29.
CEE Currencies Historical Trends
Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
The Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, Polish złoty, and Romanian leu are all over one standard deviation below their respective three-month rolling averages, continuing their downward trends from October. All four currencies are near or at their three-month lows. Following this week, the koruna, złoty, and leu have shown slight upward movement, while the forint continues to decline, now significantly below its previous August low and September high.
Additional Reading
This week, the Hungarian forint’s exchange rate against the euro reached a two-year low, with the euro-forint exchange rate hitting 405.8. This development coincides with Hungary’s release of third-quarter GDP data, indicating that the country is in a recession, with GDP declining by 0.7% this quarter—significantly below expert forecasts. Hungary has experienced economic contraction over recent months, weakening investor sentiment and contributing to the forint’s ongoing depreciation.
In October, Poland’s inflation rose 5% year-over-year, slightly up from September, driven primarily by a 4.9% increase in food prices and elevated fuel costs. Due to persistently high inflation, the Narodowy Bank Polski is expected to delay interest rate cuts until inflation moderates. However, inflation in Poland is anticipated to remain elevated in the coming months and into early 2025.
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