CEE Exchange Rates Report for September 15th-19th

By: Peter Ort The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team 

CEE Currencies Index

 Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.  

For the week of September 15-September 19, most CEE currencies slowly fell in change in exchange rate until suddenly going back to nearly even by the end of the week. The Hungarian forint (green) was the most dramatic of all the currencies, as it fell to a -1.5% change in exchange rate and only trending upward on the last day of the week to end around a -0.3% change. The Czech koruna (orange) also ended the week around a -0.3% change, although it was a bit tamer than the forint as it barely missed the mark on a -1% change in exchange rate before the end of the week. Alternatively, the Polish zloty (blue) and Romanian leu (purple) followed each other similarly for the entirely of the week, with both currencies hitting a low of a -1% change in exchange rate and interestingly wrapping up the week at 0% change. It is also worth mentioning that the zloty barely dipped lower than the leu for entire week, but the trajectories were similar.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.  

Relative to recent months, CEE currencies are growing significantly, with some building from previous growth spurts and others just getting started. The Czech koruna (CZK) spots a 0.049 exchange rate, floating around that area for the rest of this week while its counterpart, the Hungarian forint (HUF), adopts a smoother trajectory to reach a 0.00305 exchange rate. Contrary to the latter currencies, the Polish zloty (PLN) finally breaks to a new height as it peaks at a 0.28 exchange rate. The Romanian leu (RON) follows suit with a 0.235 exchange rate as its new peak. Just a few weeks ago, CEE currencies were all over the place in terms of relation to each other, as the forint and zloty were as related to each other as the koruna and leu. The week serves as a mark for the usual combinations (forint/koruna and zloty/leu) to return to similarity again.