CEE Exchange Rates Report for March 9th – March 13th

By: Margaret Gachau, The Quinnipiac University Global Economics Research Team.

CEE Currencies Index 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

During the week of March 9, 2025 – March 13, 2025, Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies experienced negative percentage changes in exchange rates early in the week but the all ended the week slightly stronger after a mid-week decline. The Hungarian forint (green) was the most volatile currency during the period. After starting the week at about 0.8%, it experienced a sharp mid-week depreciation, dropping to roughly -2.6%, the largest decline among the group. However, the forint gradually recovered in the following days and ended the week near 0.3%, returning to positive territory. The Polish zloty (blue) followed a similar pattern falling to approximately -1.4%, before steadily recovering to rebound to about 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna (red) and Romanian leu (purple) moved closely together throughout the week. Both currencies experienced a short mid-week dip, reaching around -0.9% for the koruna and -0.7% for the leu, before gradually strengthening. By Friday, the koruna rose to roughly 0.8%, while the leu closed for a near 0.7% change in exchange rate.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends  

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period

During the week of March 9, 2025 – March 13, 2025, Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies further weakened against the U.S. dollar following the relatively weaker levels observed earlier in the month. At the country level, the Czech koruna (CZK) declined steadily toward the end of the week. After fluctuating close to its rolling average earlier in the period, the currency experienced a sharper drop in the final trading days, falling to approximately 0.0467 USD per koruna. The Hungarian forint (HUF) displayed a similar reversal. Although the currency had earlier strengthened and briefly traded near the lower bound level, it lost momentum as the week progressed. By the end of the period, the forint weakened significantly, falling to around 0.0029 USD per forint, clearly below both its rolling average and lower bound range. The Polish zloty (PLN) also followed this downward pattern. After reaching stronger levels earlier in the period, the currency declined sharply during the final days of the week, closing near 0.267 USD per zloty, well below its lower bound. Meanwhile, the Romanian leu (RON) mirrored the regional trend. The currency gradually weakened and recorded one of the most pronounced end-of-period drops, falling to roughly 0.224 USD per leu, placing it clearly below its rolling average and lower bound levels.

Additional Reading

CEE MARKETS-Central Europe's currencies bounce back, yields fall 

The article states that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies experienced volatility during the week amid developments in the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran. Earlier market concerns that the conflict could disrupt Middle Eastern oil shipments pushed oil prices higher and created inflation fears, putting pressure on CEE assets due to the region’s heavy dependence on energy imports. However, markets partially stabilized after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict could end quickly, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions. As oil prices retreated from recent highs, CEE currencies rebounded, with the Hungarian forint leading the recovery, strengthening by more than 2% against the euro. The Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and Romanian leu also recorded modest gains as bond markets steadied and regional assets recovered some earlier losses. Despite the rebound, analysts noted that currency movements may remain volatile until greater clarity emerges regarding the geopolitical situation and global energy markets.