CEE Exchange Rates Report for November 6 – 10
By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Allison Goegel
CEE Currencies Index
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of November 6 - 10, the Czech koruna (blue) finished the week with a decrease of .4526%. The Hungarian forint (green) increased the most this week, ending off with a total strengthening of .7816%. The Polish zloty (red) alike to the forint also experienced a notable increase this week by .5809%. The Romanian leu (yellow) remained consistent and experienced no significant change.
CEE Currencies Historical Trends
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
For the week of November 6 - 10, two Central Eastern European exchange rates surpassed their high bound. The Czech koruna (CZK) after passing its lower bound last week, is now moving between that and its average bound. On the other hand, the Hungarian forint (HUF) surpassed its upper bound quite rapidly and seems to be continually increasing. The Polish zloty (PLN) also surpassed its high bound. The Romanian leu (RON) is currently positioned between its lower and average bounds.
Notably, the Hungarian forint experienced significant increasing mirroring what the Polish zloty experienced a few weeks prior.
This Daily News Hungary article explores more about the Hungarian forint’s performance this past week. Interestingly, it is predicting a future weakening of the currency after the more current overvaluation.